At about 2:00 p.m, this afternoon a Tornado Watch went into effect across the Big Country. As of now, 3:30 p.m, the radar is pretty quiet and we expect for that to change over the course of the next couple of hours. While most of the extreme weather looks to impact OK/KS this afternoon/evening, some of those showers and storms are likely to impact the area especially to the west of Abilene/San Angelo line.
Right now, there's plenty of moisture across the Big Country with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A southeast wind continues to usher a lot of that fuel for thunderstorm activity this afternoon.
A surface dryline, coupled with an upper-level system across the four corners region will help initiate thunderstorm activity. A slight to marginal risk of severe weather is still likely, but now parts of the Big Country have an enhanced risk for severe weather.
The first round of storms will happen over the course of the next couple of hours. Most of the activity will remain isolated for now, although the 18Z HRRR simulated reflectivity suggest more organized activity just before sunset.
Tonight, the main threats include hail, gusty winds and dangerous lightning. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out especially in the more organized linear complex.
More widespread rain and thunderstorm chances return tomorrow morning and those could be, once again, on the strong to severe side.
-Meteorologist Barrett Phillips and Ricky Cody