Good morning west Texas and welcome to your Thursday! As you wake up this morning skies are mostly clear with lows in the 60s. Winds are generally from the ESE at 5-10 MPH. An isolated shower or thundershower is possible before 10 AM this morning, but as of now, it’s looking unlikely.
As we move through your day, skies will turn mostly sunny in the Big Country and completely sunny in the Concho Valley. Highs will range from the upper 80s/low 90s to the mid/upper 90s for our friends in the Concho Valley. Winds will shift from the south/ESE at 5-15,20 MPH. Much like the last three days, there is a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2 PM. With that chance comes the potential to strong to severe storms.
The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center keeps areas north of I-20 under a MARGINAL RISK that’s 1/5 on their scale. But just to the northwest, a SLIGHT RISK extends from the panhandle south to Kent/King Co., which is just on the outskirts of our viewing area. Damaging winds, hail, heavy rain and frequent lightning are expected tonight as storms roll across the region.
Now, unlike the last three days, there isn’t a ton of agreement between models. 06Z Hi-Res model has isolated showers developing along a dryline to our west, but those storms become more linear with impacts from Haskell Co., south to Tom Green Co., This model has done well resolving the last few severe weather days, so for now I’ll split the guidance between that and the 06Z RAP with scattered showers after 4 PM mainly north of I-20 with 30-40 percent coverage.
Tonight, skies will turn partly cloudy with lows back into the mid-to-upper 60s.
Friday looks to be even warmer than today as highs climb into the upper 90s. I think folks west of HWY 277 will hit that 100° mark as I’ve forecasted all week long. If we do, that will be the first time in 2018. Rain chances look to diminish and I think the more active weather will stay north of the Big Country Friday night. Given our unsettled weather pattern, an isolated shower or storm can’t be ruled out for our far northern counties.
The weekend looks to be warm with highs in the upper 80s with the mid-90s farther south. Skies will stay mostly to partly cloudy. Winds will increase from the south, gusting near 25 MPH. 10-20 percent coverage of a shower or storm.
Monday and Tuesday look like they are going to be partly cloudy with highs closer to normal in the mid/ upper 80s. Winds will be out of the southeast at 5-15 MPH and there will be a 10-30 percent chance of scattered thundershowers both days.
Have a great day!
-Meteorologist Ricky Cody